NOTE: this blog is no longer active as of 12/07. New one: http://blog.kirchhof.com
Quidquid latine dictum sit, altum viditur.
Tue, 28 Sep 2004
On Polling
I just sent this to my friend Tracy, who expressed concern (and
amazement) at the polling numbers being reported in the major media. I
guess that it's worth a post here as well.
I addressed the polling questions that you mentioned, a few days back
in my weblog; it's here
if you want to read Jimmy Breslin's take on it.
The main thing is that "likely voters" (to pollsters) are voters that voted
in the last three elections. In this election, that is absurd. Several tens
of millions of first-time voters have registered in the last three months,
and they are overwhelmingly young, informed, and liberal in their political
views. And those that didn't bother to vote in the last school board
election (or whatever) are absolutely motivated to get to the polls in this
election. So pollsters have already ignored a huge segment of the voting
public - a segment that will overwhelmingly vote democratic.
The second issue with polling is that they do not poll cell phones. Again,
this segment of the population -- 169 million cells nationwide, with 22
million using the cell as their *only* phone -- tend to be better informed
and better educated. And the "only a cell phone" crowd is overwhelmingly
young, liberal, and motivated.
Third, and most important, the polls are all over the map this year. On
Sept. 12th, Time had Bush up by 12 points, while Zogby had him up by 2. On
the 15th, Gallup had him up by 13, and Democracy Corps had him up by 1.
(See http://pollingreport.com if you're into the details on this one.)
These disparities indicate a profoundly broken polling model. The bottom
line is that polls are meaningless this year, because demographics have
changed dramatically in the last few years, and the pollsters have no idea
how to get a representative sample. If you are going to call only land-line
phones of people who voted in the last three elections, you are going to
get an unrepresentative sample of home-bound, generally older people in the
mix. They tend to (statistically) skew towards conservative in their
political views.
Remember: Bush lost by half a million of the popular votes in 2000, and
liberal turnout was lackadaisical at best. I don't think that Bush has
converted many liberals to his side -- but he surely has motivated a huge
number of liberals to get to the polls and vote democratic this season. The
3 million Nader voters from 2000 are *overwhelmingly* back in the Dems camp
as well -- even Nader's 2000 senior campaign staffers have endorsed Kerry.
Additionally, Bush has lost Republicans to some extent, although it's hard
to get a clear bead on this one. Are you aware that one in eight Texas
Republicans voted "uncommitted" -- e.g., for "not Bush" -- in the Texas
Republican Presidential Primary this year? And that's on his erstwhile home
turf. In the Idaho primary, it was one in nine. It's anyone's guess how
this plays out in the popular vote, but you can bet that Karl Rove is
ordering Tums by the case lot.
I think that we may be in for a blockbuster of a pleasant surprise on
November 2nd - maybe not a 1932 Roosevelt-Hoover train wreck, but Bush
is in a LOT more trouble than big-shop national polling firms indicate
-- because polling firms and their statistical models have been
bypassed by national lifestyle changes.
A little-known fact: the Democrats are depositing 50,000 checks a day from
politically motivated contributors. That bears repetition: 50,000 a *day.*
This is utterly unprecedented -- completely off the scale in political
fundraising history.
But don't get complacent -- make this information motivate you! Make
sure all of your friends vote. Give people rides on Nov 2nd. Call
'em. Remind 'em.
In Texas, new voters have until end of day on October first to register to
vote in the November 2nd election. That is essentially *this Friday* at
5:00 PM when they lock the County Clerk's office. Ask around -- and Get
People Registered.
Forward this along to anyone you care to.
[Update: "several tens of millions" of new registrants is probably an
exaggeration; it appears to be approaching 9-10 million as far as I can
discern, from an informal sampling of Offices of the Secretary of
State and voter reg sites.
And, by the way, you can verify that you
are registered in Texas by calling (800) 252-VOTE. Other states
have different phone numbers; you can get yours at JustVote.]
Posted at 11:58 by Randy Kirchhof [Permalink]
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Let's not forget...
The St. Pete Times has an excellent column
online entitled "When five voted for millions." It's a recap of how
the supreme court installed our President into office back in 2000. It
remains a completely indefensible decision, ranking up there with Dred
Scott as an all-time low point.
For a more detailed legal examiniation of this issue, Vincent
Bugliosi's None
Dare Call It Treason in The Nation remains one of the very best
contemporaneous analyses. It was published a month after the Bush v
Gore decision.
Heads up, people. Another election is coming, and these same
ethically-bereft people are still in power.
Posted at 09:01 by Randy Kirchhof [Permalink]
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